Has good weather helped to fuel record small boat crossings?

Good upwind and the willingness of radical smugglers to cram much radical onto tiny boats person been highlighted by the authorities arsenic factors driving the level of migrant Channel crossings.

The Home Office has released figures showing that the fig of "red days" - erstwhile conditions are considered favourable for tiny vessel crossings - peaked successful 2024-25.

The figures besides amusement a emergence successful "severely overcrowded boats" successful the aforesaid period.

The Conservatives and Reform person accused the authorities of "blaming the weather" for the grounds crossings truthful acold this year. The authorities has said it is moving to hole "a breached asylum system" near by the Tories.

The Home Office figures uncover determination were 190 reddish days successful the 12 months to April 2025 - an 80% summation connected the erstwhile twelvemonth and the highest fig since records began.

Red days are defined arsenic days which the Met Office has assessed arsenic "likely" oregon "highly likely" to spot tiny vessel crossings, based connected things similar the tallness of waves, upwind velocity and rainfall.

By publishing the reddish time figures, the archetypal authoritative merchandise of this kind, the authorities is suggesting a nexus betwixt bully upwind conditions and the level of migrant crossings.

So acold this year, 14,812 radical person arrived successful tiny boats - up astir 40% connected the aforesaid play past year. Almost 1,200 radical arrived connected Saturday alone.

BBC Verify asked Peter Walsh from the Migration Observatory, based astatine the University of Oxford, precisely what interaction the upwind has connected Channel crossings.

He said it was a origin but different issues, specified arsenic the effectiveness of smuggling gangs and the fig of radical wanting to scope the UK are apt to beryllium much important.

"A migrant's determination to travel to the UK by tiny vessel is important and life-changing for them: volition they casually driblet their plans and determine not to migrate due to the fact that of a fewer consecutive days of atrocious weather? Or volition they conscionable hold until the adjacent safe-weather day," helium told BBC Verify.

While acknowledging that gangs person exploited periods of bully upwind to summation crossings, a Home Office spokesperson insisted the authorities is "restoring grip to the breached asylum strategy it inherited".

"That's wherefore we are giving counter-terror benignant powers to instrumentality enforcement, launching an unprecedented planetary crackdown connected migration transgression and person prevented 9,000 crossings from the French coastline this twelvemonth alone", the spokesperson said.

Responding to the reddish time figures, Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp, said:

"Blaming the upwind for the highest ever crossing numbers truthful acold this twelvemonth is the borderline information equivalent of a lazy pupil claiming 'the canine ate my homework'."

Reform MP Lee Anderson said: "This Labour authorities blaming tiny vessel crossings connected the upwind is similar blaming the lodging situation connected homebuilders - it's pathetic."

The figures besides amusement a emergence successful what the Home Office has called "severely overcrowded tiny boats".

In the twelvemonth to April 2025, determination were 33 boats which carried 80 oregon much radical connected board.

The twelvemonth before, determination were lone 11 boats with 80 oregon much radical and determination was conscionable 1 of these boats recorded successful the twelvemonth to April 2023.

While the fig of radical per vessel has increased, the full fig of boats has fallen from 1,116 successful 2021–22 to 738 past year.

Last twelvemonth a record fig of radical died attempting to transverse the transmission successful tiny boats, thing which the Home Office attributes to "more radical [being] crammed into flimsy and unsafe boats" by radical smugglers.