Sir John Curtice: Reform's sweeping election wins shake Tory and Labour dominance

Though immoderate of the results are inactive to beryllium reported, Reform are intelligibly the winners of Thursday's section elections.

Across the 23 councils wherever a ballot was held, the enactment won much votes and much seats than immoderate of its opponents by a wide margin. The enactment is astir apt heading for astir 700 spot gains and won 2 mayoral contests.

Meanwhile, it has won wide power of nary little than 7 councils, including the erstwhile Labour fiefdom of Durham and the 2 largest counties, Kent and Lancashire.

The enactment performed champion successful wards which voted heavy for Leave successful the 2016 referendum. Yet adjacent successful places which voted to stay successful the EU, the enactment was inactive routinely capable to triumph arsenic overmuch arsenic a 5th of the vote.

The enactment seemed capable crossed the state to pat into voters' wide dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Labour.

In the BBC's projection of what would person happened if a nationwide predetermination had been held connected Thursday, Reform were credited with 30% of the vote. That easy beats the 23% that Ukip scored astatine the tallness of their popularity successful 2013. It is the archetypal clip that a enactment different than Conservative oregon Labour has been placed first.

Meanwhile, Reform besides won the Runcorn by-election, albeit by the narrowest of margins. Never earlier has a pro-Brexit enactment campaigner won a by-election, different than 2 section Tory MPs who defected to Ukip successful 2014.

For some the Conservatives and Labour the effect was worse than their spokespersons feared. The Conservatives mislaid 2 successful 3 of the seats they were defending and astatine champion are apt to beryllium near with power of conscionable 1 council, Buckinghamshire.

In a wide denotation of the Conservatives' vulnerability to the situation from Nigel Farage's party, its ballot fell astir heavy successful places wherever the Reform beforehand was strongest. Their people successful the BBC projection is by acold a grounds low.

Labour besides mislaid 2 successful 3 of the seats they were defending, though it had the consolation of winning 3 mayoral elections, albeit lone by a constrictive margin. Their projected stock is the lowest since 2008, erstwhile the enactment suffered from the fiscal clang and the MPs' expenses scandal.

In contrast, the Liberal Democrats were capable to withstand the Reform tide, signaling implicit 100 nett gains. The enactment was peculiarly palmy successful councils that it had targeted, astir notably Devon and Shropshire. Overall, however, the party's show successful votes was mostly successful enactment with that of different caller section elections. Much the aforesaid was existent of the Greens, who made a humble summation of 38 seats.

Before Thursday, commentators were asking whether the section elections would herald the extremity of Conservative and Labour's associated dominance of British politics. We surely cannot regularisation retired the anticipation that this proves to beryllium the case.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and 'The UK successful a Changing Europe'.

Analysis by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, and Lotte Hargrave.