Sir John Curtice: The map that shows Reform's triumph was much more than a protest vote

There is nary uncertainty that Reform performed good successful Thursday's section assembly elections. The enactment won astir votes, astir seats and wide power of astir councils.

True, the party's stock of the votes formed crossed each 23 councils wherever elections took spot connected Thursday was nary much than 31%. So contempt doing well, it secured acold from a bulk of those voting.

However, its show was capable to enactment Reform good up of the Conservatives – who traditionally predominate region councils - connected 23%, the Liberal Democrats connected 17% and Labour connected 14% erstwhile you tally up the votes successful those parts of England that went to the polls connected Thursday.

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At the 2024 wide predetermination Reform secured 14% of the ballot but conscionable 5 retired of 650 seats astatine Westminster. But crucially, being up of everyone other successful 2025 ensured the first-past-the-post predetermination strategy helped Reform.

Its tally of 677 assembly seats represented 41% of each those being contested connected Thursday, 10 points supra its stock of the vote, a motion to some the quality of the voting strategy and Reform's quality to clump votes. That boost helped the enactment triumph power of arsenic galore arsenic 10 councils, thing that Reform's predecessor, UKIP, ne'er managed astatine the tallness of its popularity successful the tally up to the 2015 wide election.

In Staffordshire, Reform won 72% of the seats connected 41% of the vote. In Kent, 37% of the ballot delivered it 70% of the seats, portion successful Derbyshire the aforesaid stock was rewarded with 66% of each the councillors.

Instead of insulating Conservative and Labour from the interaction of a third-party challenge, arsenic it has done truthful often before, archetypal past the station exacerbated their losses. In some cases Reform took astir fractional of each the seats those parties were defending.

The representation supra is the astir elaborate section predetermination mapping ever produced by the BBC. It details the spot of the Reform ballot successful each ward that voted connected Thursday and shows enactment for Reform varied considerably.

That saltation has immoderate striking and important features. They suggest the enactment was peculiarly fashionable among those who voted for Brexit successful 2016 and for Boris Johnson successful 2019 - and that Reform's occurrence cannot simply beryllium dismissed arsenic a short-lived protestation vote.

Reflecting the party's anti-EU stance, Reform did overmuch amended successful wards that voted heavy for Leave successful the 2016 EU referendum than it did successful wards that backed Remain.

In wards wherever much than 65% voted Leave successful 2016, Reform won connected mean arsenic overmuch arsenic 45% of the vote. In contrast, successful places wherever a bulk backed Remain, lone 19% voted for Reform.

Although talked astir overmuch little by politicians nowadays, Brexit is inactive an important responsibility enactment successful our politics. Reform's entreaty is importantly concentrated among those who judge the Brexit determination was right.

Even so, the information that adjacent successful pro-Remain wards the enactment was capable to triumph arsenic overmuch arsenic a 5th of the ballot was grounds to the standard of the plaything that it enjoyed connected Thursday.

The Brexit part is besides evident successful the demographic quality of the places wherever Reform did champion and those wherever it did little well.

University graduates and those successful nonrecreational and managerial jobs were slightest apt to ballot for Brexit successful 2016. Reform recovered it much hard to bash good successful places wherever they are astir numerous.

Reform won 39% of the ballot successful heavy working-class wards but lone 19% successful the astir middle-class ones.

The representation shows Reform's highest ballot of each (65.1%) was successful Thornley & Wheatley Hill, situated successful Tony Blair's erstwhile Sedgefield constituency successful Durham and erstwhile a centre of ember mining. Next highest was Romney Marsh successful Kent and Chadsmoor successful Staffordshire.

Meanwhile, enactment for the enactment averaged 43% successful wards wherever much than fractional of adults person few, if any, acquisition qualifications. In contrast, it polled conscionable 19% wherever much than 2 successful 5 person a degree.

Reform's lowest stock of the vote, 3.7%, was successful the Parks ward successful Oxford, situated successful the bosom of the celebrated assemblage city.

Immigration is besides a cardinal contented for Reform. However, this possibly makes the enactment little appealing to those from a number background.

Certainly, connected mean the enactment lone polled 22% successful wards wherever much than 1 successful 5 place arsenic different than 'white', compared with a tally of 33% successful places wherever much than 95% told the 2021 Census that they were 'white'.

In summary, Reform did champion successful what has sometimes been characterised successful the aftermath of the Brexit referendum arsenic 'left-behind' Britain – places that person profited little from globalisation and assemblage enlargement and wherever a much blimpish outlook connected migration is much common.

Neither the Conservatives nor Labour are apt to retrieve from the drubbing they received connected Thursday unless they tin entreaty much to this portion of Britain.

Although polls bespeak that Reform finds it easier to triumph implicit erstwhile Conservative voters than their Labour counterparts, Reform's mean stock of the ballot was strikingly conscionable arsenic precocious successful wards that Labour were defending arsenic it was successful places that the Conservatives were trying to retain.

The enactment connected mean won 32% of the ballot successful antecedently Labour wards and 32% successful Conservative ones.

As a result, Labour mislaid seats to Reform astatine overmuch the aforesaid complaint arsenic the Conservatives, a signifier that outgo Labour power of the 1 assembly they were defending, Doncaster.

In contrast, Reform's beforehand was much muted successful wards that the Liberal Democrats and the Greens were defending. The party's mean stock successful these wards was conscionable 22%. As a result, Reform had comparatively small occurrence successful taking seats from these 2 parties.

Liberal Democrat and Green wards – dissimilar galore Conservative and Labour ones - are heavy populated by assemblage graduates.

Reform's occurrence connected Thursday undoubtedly reflects the temper of an electorate that inactive has small religion successful the Conservatives and which present is disappointed by Labour's show successful office.

However, it is evidently proving astir fashionable successful a precise distinctive portion of Britain that overturned the governmental tables a decennary agone successful voting for Brexit - and which present has done truthful again.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and 'The UK successful a Changing Europe'.

Analysis by Patrick English, Steve Fisher, Robert Ford, and Lotte Hargrave

Map produced by Libby Rogers, Muskeen Liddar, Jess Carr and Callum Thomson